TVA-476

TVA-476BetaActiveHydroTVALBNL

18 MW generation in Lyon, KY · In queue since April 2021 · Proposed COD February 2027

BA: PJMNERC: SERCRC: MISO

18 MW

Capacity

Components

Hydro

5y 3m

In Queue

Facility Study

IA Phase

COD target: 2027

Interconnection

Total Duration

5y 10m

Facilities Study50%

Queue EntryApr 29, 2021

Interconnection request submitted to ISO/RTO

Interconnection StudyCurrent

Project undergoes interconnection studies to assess grid impact.

Typical: 18–36 months

Interconnection Agreement

Interconnection agreement not yet executed

Typical: 30–60 days (negotiation)

Commercial Operation

Proposed COD: 2027-02-25

About

TVA-476 is a proposed 36 MW hydroelectric generation project located in Lyon County, Kentucky. The project is sponsored by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and entered the TVA interconnection queue on April 29, 2021. Its proposed commercial operation date is August 1, 2022, and its interconnection status is currently in the Facility Study phase.

The project is linked to the existing Barkley Power Plant. Recent news coverage has discussed this development project.

Generated from interconnection queue and public data sources

Development Risk

Realization risk before commercial operation — cluster-study clearance, IA timing, counterparty mix, and withdrawal probability vs cohort. The diligence view that determines whether this project is worth pursuing. Powered by InfraSure's development-stage modeling stack.

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See the full development-risk decomposition for this project.

P(COD by stated date)

Withdrawal probability vs cohort

IA cluster risk

Project Details

State

County

Lyon

Grid Region

Southeast

Market

—

Developer

—

Utility

Tennessee Valley Authority

Entity

TVA

Service Type

—

Point of Interconnection

Barkley Power Plant

Data Source

LBNL

Risk Analytics

Composite operating-phase risk view — what this asset's risk profile would look like once it reaches commercial operation. Climate hazards across its operating life, expected generation variability, and offtake counterparty exposure, decomposed into a single decision-grade score. Powered by InfraRisk.

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See the full risk decomposition + scenarios for this project.

Climate hazards (8+)

Generation variability (P10/P50/P90)

Offtake + transmission counterparty

Generation Forecast

Forward generation outlook — what this project would produce assuming it reaches commercial operation. Probabilistic ranges (P10/P50/P90) across weather, demand, and policy scenarios, conditioned on the proposed COD. Powered by InfraSure's generation modeling stack.

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See the full forecast + scenario decomposition for this project.

P50 conditioned on COD

Capacity factor vs cohort

Weather + policy scenarios

Financial Forecast

Forward revenue, DSCR projection, and financing-close risk — conditioned on commercial operation. The bankability view that determines whether the deal clears its covenants once online. Powered by InfraSure's asset cashflow stack.

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See the full revenue + DSCR projection for this project.

Revenue conditioned on COD

Financing close risk

Cohort DSCR comparison

Market Context

Approximate

ISO / RTO: SOUTHEAST
Trading Hub: TVA
Hub Confidence: UNKNOWN

This project's market context is estimated from its Point of Interconnection. Hub and node assignments are approximate and based on geographic inference from the POI substation name.

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Forward forecasts, scenario decomposition, and risk-decision tooling for this queue project.

Project TVA-476 — Project Summary

TVA-476