Project Duke-4 — Project Summary

Queue ID
Duke-4
Capacity
537 MW
Technology
Gas
Status
active
Location
Osceola, FL
Region
Southeast
Developer
Orlando Utilities Commission
IA Status
In Progress (unknown study)

Duke-4

Duke-4BetaActiveGasDukeLBNL

537 MW generation in Osceola, FL · In queue since April 1999

BA: FPLNERC: FRCCRC: FRCC

537 MW

Capacity

1

Components

Gas

27y 3m

In Queue

In Progress (unknown study)

IA Phase

Interconnection

Total Duration

27y 3m

In Study38%
Queue EntryApr 22, 1999

Interconnection request submitted to ISO/RTO

Interconnection StudyCurrent

Project undergoes interconnection studies to assess grid impact.

Typical: 18–36 months

Interconnection Agreement

Interconnection agreement not yet executed

Typical: 30–60 days (negotiation)

Commercial Operation

Commercial operation date not yet determined

Cross-source intelligence
Beta
Low confidence·0 sources·as of 2026-06-01
Expected COD
Developer
Orlando Utilities Commission
From queue filing
Status
Active
Active — queue position from 1999, interconnection study in progress, no public updates on construction timeline
Financing
Unannounced
About

Duke-4 is a proposed 537 MW gas-fired generation project located in Osceola County, Florida. The project is being developed by Duke Energy Florida and is interconnected to the Holopaw Substation 230 kV.

The project is listed in the Duke Energy Florida interconnection queue with an entry date of April 22, 1999. The interconnection agreement (IA) has been executed.

Generated from interconnection queue and public data sources

Development Risk

Realization risk before commercial operation — cluster-study clearance, IA timing, counterparty mix, and withdrawal probability vs cohort. The diligence view that determines whether this project is worth pursuing. Powered by InfraSure's development-stage modeling stack.

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See the full development-risk decomposition for this project.

P(COD by stated date)
Withdrawal probability vs cohort
IA cluster risk
Project Details

State

FL

County

Osceola

Grid Region

Southeast

Market

Developer

Orlando Utilities Commission

Utility

Duke Energy Florida

Entity

Duke

Service Type

ERIS

Point of Interconnection

Holopaw Substation 230 kV

Data Source

LBNL

Risk Analytics

Composite operating-phase risk view — what this asset's risk profile would look like once it reaches commercial operation. Climate hazards across its operating life, expected generation variability, and offtake counterparty exposure, decomposed into a single decision-grade score. Powered by InfraRisk.

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See the full risk decomposition + scenarios for this project.

Climate hazards (8+)
Generation variability (P10/P50/P90)
Offtake + transmission counterparty
Generation Forecast

Forward generation outlook — what this project would produce assuming it reaches commercial operation. Probabilistic ranges (P10/P50/P90) across weather, demand, and policy scenarios, conditioned on the proposed COD. Powered by InfraSure's generation modeling stack.

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See the full forecast + scenario decomposition for this project.

P50 conditioned on COD
Capacity factor vs cohort
Weather + policy scenarios
Financial Forecast

Forward revenue, DSCR projection, and financing-close risk — conditioned on commercial operation. The bankability view that determines whether the deal clears its covenants once online. Powered by InfraSure's asset cashflow stack.

Available on the InfraSure platform

See the full revenue + DSCR projection for this project.

Revenue conditioned on COD
Financing close risk
Cohort DSCR comparison
Market Context
Approximate
ISO / RTO
SOUTHEAST
Trading Hub
FRCC
Hub Confidence
UNKNOWN

This project's market context is estimated from its Point of Interconnection. Hub and node assignments are approximate and based on geographic inference from the POI substation name.

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InfraSure platform

Forward forecasts, scenario decomposition, and risk-decision tooling for this queue project.